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02 February 2023

Reflections on the housing market: 2009 to today

Every now and then it is a good idea to sit back and remind ourselves of the big picture and how we got to where we are at the moment. For the NZ housing market, the story is this.

20 January 2023

Housing market weakening once again

We all underestimated the extent to which prices would rise when the pandemic struck in early-2020. Now, almost everyone has underestimated the extent to which prices, and sales, are heading down now that the pandemic is over and the inflation resulting from excess stimulus needs to be brought under control.

05 December 2022

Rodney's Ravings: The Reserve Bank is a major source of instability

Our unemployment rate tells us a lot about how the Reserve Bank is doing on its mission to keep inflation under control - and looking back at the numbers, it's not exactly a glowing picture.

23 November 2022

Triple hike brings OCR to its highest in over a decade

This one's going to hit homeowners hard. Here's what to expect from mortgage rates, and what to do if your mortgage is coming up for renewal.

23 November 2022

Interest rates to go even higher after OCR hike

Over the past year or so we have seen a decline in the number of properties sold from 100,000 down to about 68,000. The OCR has just jumped up, and things are about to get worse.

28 October 2022

Property investors backing away from the market

My monthly survey has shown a decrease in the net proportion of these investors thinking about buying another property from 10% down to only 2%.

17 October 2022

Down but not out: Making sense of NZ's housing market and economy

There's not much cause for optimism out there among global economy headlines at the moment - but the outlook for New Zealand isn't all bad.

12 October 2022

Rodney's Ravings: Seldom has residential building been more important

With sentiment across New Zealand's residential building sector at a new low right now, what are the implications for our construction sector, and the wider economy?

28 September 2022

Interest rate outlook sours

It is somewhat ironic that at the same time as we are seeing first home buyers return to the market and investors pricking up their ears, prospects for interest rates have worsened.

16 September 2022

The return of the first home buyer

While there may be a shift underway in the minds of first home buyers, will the turning of the cycle be as swift going back as it was going back down?

31 August 2022

The endgame is upon us

While housing markets move in cycles, there is something very different about this downward leg of the housing cycle. But with the endgame upon us, will house prices stop falling?

19 August 2022

Monetary policy tightening – sort of

Changes made to the official cash rate strongly affect floating mortgage rates, but when it comes to fixed rates it is expectations for what will happen with monetary policy that truly matter.